We have compared the relative abundances in the most commonly used commodities, by dividing reserves over current production (in years). Collectively, it implies there will soon to be fundamental shortages in four key metals.
The majority of silver production is recovered as a by-product of polymetallic sulphide ores, two-thirds of those global resources reside within Pb-Zn deposits. The lack of recent base metal discoveries is primarily the result of nominal commodity prices unable to keep up with inflation over the past two decades. Severely depressed exploration expenditures over that period have resulted in the inability to replace production, the effects of which, are now beginning to disrupt global mine supply.
The irony being, silver demand has far outstripped new supply over the past four calendar years, with demand forecast to be >20% (142Moz) primary supply in 2024.
In regards to gold, we don’t think its hyperbole to point out that global reserves have largely plateaued for 14 years, that we are barely keeping pace with current extraction rates; let alone allowing for the growth in future demand. Western investors have been so focused on BTC, covid meme stocks, AI and Nvidia that that they have completely ignored bullion as an investment vehicle, with dedicated EFT gold holdings largely declining over the period. Gold remains the world’s largest monetary asset at $14.81Tn, followed by the USD at $5.88Tn.
