Commodity Analysis
Palladium Price to Double within a Decade
Key Points Palladium (Pd) demand to grow 26% over the next decade Production dominated by Russia and South Africa Russian production sustainability under question Virtually all global Pd production is via by-product Significant price rises required to incentivise additional supply We have been questioned about our EV commodity chain
Platinum Demand to Grow from 2025 Onwards
Key Points Global platinum demand declined ~18% in the past decade Consumption nadir will be reached during 2025 Decline in diesel vehicle sales have plateaued Industrial/chemical demand to exceed autocatalyst by 2035 Platinum prices to remain flat for foreseeable future Anyone who suggests that forecasting commodity prices is easy,
Solar-Battery ~3x the Capital intensity of Nuclear
Key Points Have modelled a 1,200MW Hinkley C nuclear power plant versus a tracked solar power plant, using actual data from two optimal cloudless summer days, zero transmission losses; Construction costs were updated late last year; Used most recent Stage III published capex for Vistra Moss to estimate battery
SMRs are a Supplement, not a Replacement
KEY POINTS Legitimate demand exists for baseload power at remote mining/industrial sites and disconnected population centres. SMRs are a realistic cost-effective alternative, especially in regions with limited or no infrastructure; SMRs will face many of the same political, and safety concerns that plague their traditional counterparts, which will delay
Need Nuclear Power to make EVs Greener
We have always maintained that the use of the term “EV” is a misnomer, because it doesn’t in any way reflect the energy source. It is probably more accurate to refer to these vehicles as solar, wind, nuclear or even gas-powered, thereby reflecting the origin of the fuel resource.
Bitcoin is Not the New Gold – it’s the New Tulip 2.0!
Widespread misunderstanding of what constitutes a currency Financial Bubbles are typically associated with technological innovation Cryptocurrencies have no collateral/assets Forecast a number of current crypto platforms to collapse “Trust” is fickle; history littered with currency failures Second generation stablecoins will be more resilient Gold is the only medium/currency that
Lithium: Demand to Double Inside a Decade
71% of current Lithium demand is allocated toward batteries Forecast global Li Demand to grow 100% over the next decade By 2030, EVs will consume 61% of all Li-ion battery demand 2020 BEV sales in EU, US and China totalled 2.31m Forecast global 2021 BEV sales at ~3m Continued
Investing in Global Growth (Potash & Phosphate)
Global population forecast to peak at 9.7Bn in 2064 Decreasing arable land implies increasingly higher fertiliser consumption Global transition from wheat/rice, toward proteins and fruit/vegetables 30-50% of modern crop yields reliant on natural and/or synthetic fertilisers Global potash demand over the past six years ~ 3.1% CAGR 26-year seaborne
Nuclear – Half the Capital Cost of Off-shore Wind
KEY POINTS Greatest short-coming for intermittent energy sources is that there is no cost-effective battery technology, meaning that for 60% of the time, off-shore wind turbine power generation is sub-optimal; Modern nuclear power plants can expect to have a realistic lifespan of 80 to 100 years - whereas an