Despite declining 18% over the past decade, platinum demand is forecast to reach its nadir during 2025, after which, consumption will begin to grow steadily. Our model suggests that numerically, diesel vehicles will stabilise at current levels (growth rate ~0.7% pa), with any future declines in percentage terms being offset by greater numbers of vehicles sold.
The untold story being that industrial and chemical demand for platinum over the past decade has actually increased ~21%. We have assumed a flat 2% CAGR out to 2035 – at which point, industrial/chemical demand will match that of autocatalysts, then exceed it from that point onwards.
